misscarriage wrote:I'm confused about the logic in this thread. You are never granted getting a trophy, no matter how many times you run the uber. Just like you're never granted to get tails when you flip a coin. Mathematically speaking, you will get it eventually, but 100 or 200 or 300 runs don't prove anything at all. The odds will always be 2%
whist wrote:"hi buddy, its me again"
Your previous thread was locked because it was getting out of hands. As for my reply, it wasn't meant to mock you, but rather to close the thread on a humoristic tone. You were already told by several moderators and two admins that the drop works as intended, and yet you kept going on about how THE GAEM IS BR0KEN PLS FIX USING OBJECTIVE LAW OF M4TH, providing absolutely no scientific evidence that it is broken other than "3 people had to kill the boss several times to get a trophy and I can't get one after 100 kill".
And now here you are, creating another thread, and this time providing pseudo evidence that was generated by altering the game's code, which renders your sample completely irrelevant. And as it was already mentioned by Swineflu, your data set is way too small to provide real insight, if you take a look at recognized probability research, you'll see these kind of values are often measured against several tens of thousands samples.
Had you done a few more runs instead of spamming the forums with your conspiracy theories, googling random wikipedia articles and hacking the game to generate "proof", you'd probably have your trophy by now
And for tinfoil hat enthusiasts that are watching this thread, the chances are the same for single player and multi player.
whist wrote:"hi buddy, its me again"
Your previous thread was locked because it was getting out of hands. As for my reply, it wasn't meant to mock you, but rather to close the thread on a humoristic tone. You were already told by several moderators and two admins that the drop works as intended, and yet you kept going on about how THE GAEM IS BR0KEN PLS FIX USING OBJECTIVE LAW OF M4TH, providing absolutely no scientific evidence that it is broken other than "3 people had to kill the boss several times to get a trophy and I can't get one after 100 kill".
And now here you are, creating another thread, and this time providing pseudo evidence that was generated by altering the game's code, which renders your sample completely irrelevant. And as it was already mentioned by Swineflu, your data set is way too small to provide real insight, if you take a look at recognized probability research, you'll see these kind of values are often measured against several tens of thousands samples.
Had you done a few more runs instead of spamming the forums with your conspiracy theories, googling random wikipedia articles and hacking the game to generate "proof", you'd probably have your trophy by now
And for tinfoil hat enthusiasts that are watching this thread, the chances are the same for single player and multi player.
Nahuatl wrote:whist wrote:"hi buddy, its me again"
Your previous thread was locked because it was getting out of hands. As for my reply, it wasn't meant to mock you, but rather to close the thread on a humoristic tone. You were already told by several moderators and two admins that the drop works as intended, and yet you kept going on about how THE GAEM IS BR0KEN PLS FIX USING OBJECTIVE LAW OF M4TH, providing absolutely no scientific evidence that it is broken other than "3 people had to kill the boss several times to get a trophy and I can't get one after 100 kill".
And now here you are, creating another thread, and this time providing pseudo evidence that was generated by altering the game's code, which renders your sample completely irrelevant. And as it was already mentioned by Swineflu, your data set is way too small to provide real insight, if you take a look at recognized probability research, you'll see these kind of values are often measured against several tens of thousands samples.
Had you done a few more runs instead of spamming the forums with your conspiracy theories, googling random wikipedia articles and hacking the game to generate "proof", you'd probably have your trophy by now
And for tinfoil hat enthusiasts that are watching this thread, the chances are the same for single player and multi player.
If we trust uberelite’s 354 streamed runs for a single trophy we get the following chi square:
1|353
7|347
(Observed 1 trophy in 354 runs, expected 7 trophies at 2% in 354) we get a p-value of 2.2% (2.1% if you don’t round the expected results)
In layman’s terms we’d expect a 2.2% chance that random chance picked that outcome with a 2% rate.
So there are possibilities here. One is that the data is flawed (I’m not checking 354 runs). One is that this was super unlucky. One is that there’s something fishy going on.
This does not need to be tested 10s of thousands of times. If the rate was actually 1%, for instance, 750 trials would give us 95% confidence it isn’t 2%.
I’m all for doing 750 runs and recording the data transparently. If there is an issue, it’s better to know it. That said, I’m not a fan of the way this is combative instead of data-driven exploration.
SwineFlu wrote:(lotto) ... yet the chance for that recipe was downed to 3% from 5% and this change was committed somewhere in between MXL 17 iteration.
Nahuatl wrote:I’m all for doing 750 runs and recording the data transparently. If there is an issue, it’s better to know it. That said, I’m not a fan of the way this is combative instead of data-driven exploration.
Marco wrote:Even more actually, it's been 3% for 6 years
Code: Select all
void RandomTest()
{
using UINT32 = unsigned int;
using UINT64 = unsigned long long;
// Pretty much the same function used by d2 engine
auto Random = [](UINT64& Seed, UINT32 Range) -> UINT32
{
if (Range == 0)
return 0;
Seed = 1791398085 * (Seed & 0xFFFFFFFF) + (Seed >> 32);
return (Seed & 0xFFFFFFFF) % Range;
};
// Set initial seed value (could be anything)
std::srand(std::time(nullptr));
UINT64 RngSeed = (static_cast<UINT64>(std::rand()) << 32) + std::rand();
// Trophy drop change = 2/100
if (Random(RngSeed, 100) < 2)
std::cout << "Success!" << '\n';
}