a simple test about trophy drop rate in single-player

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RequiemLux
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fengyun1993228 wrote:
RequiemLux wrote:
fengyun1993228 wrote:i use a software called. in single-player and i set it to 100. it means when i kill a mob, it will drop 100 times.
then i kill laz for 10 times. so totally drop 10X100=1000 times. then i get 22 trophies. i think the result is quite reasonable.


Please read the rules: Forum Rules
► CHEATING POLICY

i think its not hack or cheat
CE is just a tool used in single-player to test.
if it is still forbidden i will delete the details about CE.


Doesn't matter for what purpose you use it, it's a cheat tool and there's no room on the forum for this. Please delete.
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RyougiShiki
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RequiemLux wrote:
fengyun1993228 wrote:
RequiemLux wrote:
fengyun1993228 wrote:i use a software called in single-player and i set it to 100. it means when i kill a mob, it will drop 100 times.
then i kill laz for 10 times. so totally drop 10X100=1000 times. then i get 22 trophies. i think the result is quite reasonable.


Please read the rules: Forum Rules
► CHEATING POLICY

i think its not hack or cheat
CE is just a tool used in single-player to test.
if it is still forbidden i will delete the details about CE.


Doesn't matter for what purpose you use it, it's a cheat tool and there's no room on the forum for this. Please delete.

done
Pub
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Good luck, you got a monster of an uphill battle to fight that's a never ending slope.
PaMxl
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I must say I am quite interested in the whole trophy discussion as I am trying to farm a trophy myself. Since the beginning of this season (21), only one trophy have dropped from Akarat during a regular gameplay, which consisted of many K3K runs, cycle farming, and killing bosses for charms with better stats. However, it would be challenging to estimate the number of kills that a trophy boss was killed.

I have been trying to get the Cathedral of Vanity and Quov Tsin trophies, killing respective bosses for 80 and 60 times without a trophy. I would like to see more data from other players, but it seems either I am not favoured by the RNG god or the trophy drop chance is less than 2%.

Out of curiosity, I performed a few simulations on the chance of not getting a trophy in 100 consecutive runs based on 10^6 separate trials and got 0%! I am aware that random number generators are not truly random, but this is not the point. If anyone would like to try using Jupyter notebook:

- go to Try Classic Notebook at https://jupyter.org/try
- click File -> New Notebook -> Python 3
- paste the following code and run (Shift + Enter)

Code: Select all

import random
def simulate_trophies(runs):
    trophy_count = 0
   
    for i in range(runs):
        if random.random() <= 0.02:
            trophy_count += 1
   
    return trophy_count
   
# Calculate probability of not getting a trophy in 100 runs
runs = 100
trials = 10**6

for i in range(trials):
    no_trophy = 0
    if simulate_trophies(runs) < 1:
        no_trophy += 1

prob_of_no_trophy = no_trophy / trials
print(prob_of_no_trophy)
CallMeCrazySam
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Actually, all the math in this thread is faulty. When you kill an uberboss that can drop a trophy, there are two outcomes. They drop the trophy or they do not drop the trophy.

From this, we can extrapolate that the drop chance of a trophy is actually 50%.

Quick mafs
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RyougiShiki
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Pub wrote:Good luck, you got a monster of an uphill battle to fight that's a never ending slope.

i played very hard in this season and get all others trophies except for laz.
this makes me must get it otherwise its a great pity for me.
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whist
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"hi buddy, its me again"

Your previous thread was locked because it was getting out of hands. As for my reply, it wasn't meant to mock you, but rather to close the thread on a humoristic tone. You were already told by several moderators and two admins that the drop works as intended, and yet you kept going on about how THE GAEM IS BR0KEN PLS FIX USING OBJECTIVE LAW OF M4TH, providing absolutely no scientific evidence that it is broken other than "3 people had to kill the boss several times to get a trophy and I can't get one after 100 kill".

And now here you are, creating another thread, and this time providing pseudo evidence that was generated by altering the game's code, which renders your sample completely irrelevant. And as it was already mentioned by Swineflu, your data set is way too small to provide real insight, if you take a look at recognized probability research, you'll see these kind of values are often measured against several tens of thousands samples.

Had you done a few more runs instead of spamming the forums with your conspiracy theories, googling random wikipedia articles and hacking the game to generate "proof", you'd probably have your trophy by now :roll:

And for tinfoil hat enthusiasts that are watching this thread, the chances are the same for single player and multi player.
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I'm confused about the logic in this thread. You are never granted getting a trophy, no matter how many times you run the uber. Just like you're never granted to get tails when you flip a coin. Mathematically speaking, you will get it eventually, but 100 or 200 or 300 runs don't prove anything at all. The odds will always be 2%
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Marco
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my 2 cents:
- i dont get it, your sample confirms 2% chance working as intended
- and no, TClasses in SP&MP are not different, its only itemratio.txt what changes bby

and people are mixing 2 diff issues:
No trophy should be "mandatory" to farm, period. and their drop chance is fine imo. Reason why this is such a problem is because of laz sleep. But laz sleep wasnt mandatory up until now when other reliable maxres sources such as PSpheres were removed. Which basically means NO, we never expected players having to do 400 laz runs to try sam. It's a problem that cascaded from a different change. It's not that hard to understand. It'll just have to wait for next patch where due changes will be done to alleviate these issues.
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RyougiShiki
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Marco wrote:my 2 cents:
- i dont get it, your sample confirms 2% chance working as intended
- and no, TClasses in SP&MP are not different, its only itemratio.txt what changes bby

and people are mixing 2 diff issues:
No trophy should be "mandatory" to farm, period. and their drop chance is fine imo. Reason why this is such a problem is because of laz sleep. But laz sleep wasnt mandatory up until now when other reliable maxres sources such as PSpheres were removed. Which basically means NO, we never expected players having to do 400 laz runs to try sam. It's a problem that cascaded from a different change. It's not that hard to understand. It'll just have to wait for next patch where due changes will be done to alleviate these issues.


1,i do think the 2% is fine and i do trust there is no difference in SP/MP mode.
2, but the whole thing is very unusual . as a admin you can easily check if i or other guys farm 100 or 300 times .I don't have to make a fuss about this to criticize someone, and I really don't have the ability to verify that everyone's words are true, you can, so I just want you to check.
3,Everyone has different goals in the game, and my current goal is getting the laz trophy. samael is important ,but this is two different things.

ty for your replying and i appreciate it.