Short Questions Thread

[YchoBicho]

Atleast the mule worked.

Thanks guys...

[PhilippeMello]

For the devs

First thanks for this entertaining mod!

Can you guys tell me if a known bug related to oil of luck and amulets happens? Or maybe there's a much reduced chance for some amulets to get the +1? if not I can mathematically safe say that it's not working as intended (at least not even close to 20%).

[HechtHeftig]

For the devs

First thanks for this entertaining mod!

Can you guys tell me if a known bug related to oil of luck and amulets happens? Or maybe there's a much reduced chance for some amulets to get the +1? if not I can mathematically safe say that it's not working as intended (at least not even close to 20%).

"Chance" or rather "probability" means that even if you have 99,99% chance to get a +1 on an amulett, you can still fail 10.000 times in a row and the probability would still be valid. It doesn't mean that 20% = every 5th amulet is guaranteed to get +1. It's only a probability after all.

It's the same for throphys. Some seasons I get the TA trophy in the first run and a 2nd in the 5th run, and some other seasons I farm TA 200 times and still don't get even one. Despite 600 Boss kills.

Anyway, the point is: even if you try it a million times, you couldn't be mathematically safe to say it's not 20%, because that's just the way probability works.

[PhilippeMello]

For the devs

First thanks for this entertaining mod!

Can you guys tell me if a known bug related to oil of luck and amulets happens? Or maybe there's a much reduced chance for some amulets to get the +1? if not I can mathematically safe say that it's not working as intended (at least not even close to 20%).

"Chance" or rather "probability" means that even if you have 99,99% chance to get a +1 on an amulett, you can still fail 10.000 times in a row and the probability would still be valid. It doesn't mean that 20% = every 5th amulet is guaranteed to get +1. It's only a probability after all.

It's the same for throphys. Some seasons I get the TA trophy in the first run and a 2nd in the 5th run, and some other seasons I farm TA 200 times and still don't get even one. Despite 600 Boss kills.

Anyway, the point is: even if you try it a million times, you couldn't be mathematically safe to say it's not 20%, because that's just the way probability works.

Hi Hech!

Actually probability do not work this way. What defines "chance" is simillar patterns that occur at the same "time of tries". 20% is more than enough to occur in 1 million tries, or even on 100 tries.

The outcome of a random event cannot be determined before it occurs, but it may be any one of several possible outcomes. The actual outcome is considered to be determined by chance although it has to happen respecting the reasonable percentual defined. So it's safe to say that never with 20% chance you won't get it with 1 million tries or with hundred tries unless the "real" chance is shorter than intended.

[SwineFlu]

...

Let me guess, you tried it on the same amulet am I right? The chance is predetermined in that case, every item has its own random seed which is used in some calculations, it's impossible to get oil of luck bonus on that amulet.

[PhilippeMello]

...

Let me guess, you tried it on the same amulet am I right? The chance is predetermined in that case, every item has its own random seed which is used in some calculations, it's impossible to get oil of luck bonus on that amulet.

Hi SwineFlu!

Thanks for the reply!

Yep agree with you and that is what I thought/concluded. Probably not any amulet can get the bonus from oil of luck (max number of natural afixes? item level?) I've tried many times in 3 different amulets 2 rare ones and 1 unique one. It worked perfectly with other amulets so I thought the same way as you. For some reason those 3 items can't have the bonus. Just wanted to know if it is a known bug or it is part of the mechanic of the game.

[HechtHeftig]

► Show Spoiler

For the devs

First thanks for this entertaining mod!

Can you guys tell me if a known bug related to oil of luck and amulets happens? Or maybe there's a much reduced chance for some amulets to get the +1? if not I can mathematically safe say that it's not working as intended (at least not even close to 20%).

"Chance" or rather "probability" means that even if you have 99,99% chance to get a +1 on an amulett, you can still fail 10.000 times in a row and the probability would still be valid. It doesn't mean that 20% = every 5th amulet is guaranteed to get +1. It's only a probability after all.

It's the same for throphys. Some seasons I get the TA trophy in the first run and a 2nd in the 5th run, and some other seasons I farm TA 200 times and still don't get even one. Despite 600 Boss kills.

Anyway, the point is: even if you try it a million times, you couldn't be mathematically safe to say it's not 20%, because that's just the way probability works.

Hi Hech!

Actually probability do not work this way. What defines "chance" is simillar patterns that occur at the same "time of tries". 20% is more than enough to occur in 1 million tries, or even on 100 tries.

The outcome of a random event cannot be determined before it occurs, but it may be any one of several possible outcomes. The actual outcome is considered to be determined by chance although it has to happen respecting the reasonable percentual defined. So it's safe to say that never with 20% chance you won't get it with 1 million tries or with hundred tries unless the "real" chance is shorter than intended.

I'm afraid it does. People have a hard time understanding probability and I don't blame you. That's what many people actually are confused about.

There's actually a nice little experiment you can even try at home. Just take a coin, throw it, write down the result, and repeat. The chance of having an exact 50/50 ratio is a lot lower than you might think. I can guarantee you that you won't make a perfect 50/50 ration on the first try. And you can find out another wonderful thing. If you write it down like: H for Heads and T for Tails you'll notice that it's not H-->T-->H-->T all the time, but instead the pattern is lot more like that: H-->H-->H-->T-->H-->T-->T--T and so on. That's because throw 1 doesn't affect throw 2. That means even if you throw it 10 times, it can still drop on heads every single time. (for your information: My math teacher in "Sekundarstufe II" gave us that experiment. Those who always had H/T/H/T and a near perfect 50/50 ratio were thus found out as cheaters, as in people who didn't actually throw the coins and just wrote down what they wanted. I did throw the coins, and I had a 68/32 ratio or something high like that. That's how weird probability can be).

And that scale goes even further. In my example before, there is only a very slim chance of that ever occuring, but there still is a chance. And that's because there still is a probability for that to occur. We can even calculate that chance!

1-99,99% = 1- 0,9999 = 0,00001

0,00001= 1/100000

So the chance for the +1 not to roll on an amulet in a million rolls even though the chance for that to happen is 99,99% is:

(1/100.000)^1.000.000

Yes, that chance is really fucking slim, but it's still there. And as long as you try it enough times it will happen.

Yes, it is so unlikely that people usually just cut it there and just say that it's too unlikely to happen, but if you throw it often enough it will happen at some point.

Btw: the probability for the roll not happening in 100 tries with 20% chance is:

(4/5)^100

The chance is low, but it can happen and it will happen if you keep trying often enough.

EDIT: Cut out the rubbish/corrected the probability.

[Nitz]

And yes, Swineflu said it already. An amulett is usually spawned with that hidden "lucky" modifier when it's created. Rerolling it with the oil of renewal won't reroll the hidden lucky modifier that determines whether you get the bonus or not.

That would be new to me. Rerolling is very similar to it dropping.

[HechtHeftig]

And yes, Swineflu said it already. An amulett is usually spawned with that hidden "lucky" modifier when it's created. Rerolling it with the oil of renewal won't reroll the hidden lucky modifier that determines whether you get the bonus or not.

That would be new to me. Rerolling is very similar to it dropping.

Right that's rubbish. Else you couldn't reroll base items for rw. Thanks for pointing that out!

[PhilippeMello]

[spoil]

...

Hi Hecht!

Thanks for the confirmation on SwineFlu thoughts. That is exactly what I was looking for.

About the math's lesson, sorry, but you are still wrong, because your way of your thinking just make all DNA results questionable. Like I've said, if you have 20% of chance to get something is unreal to believe you won't get it in a scenario of million tries as unreal on a scenario of hundred of tries (actually 378). And as you see the reason that oil of luck didn't work on the amulets was because of game mechanics (that i didn't know) and not by probability (don't get me wrong, I'm not being rude, really).

Thanks for the replies, guys!