a simple test about trophy drop rate in single-player

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RyougiShiki
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hi, buddy, its me again. sry to let you see this but i do want to say something.
in my last post , some admin mocked me and locked my post so i can not say anything and don't give me any reasons. im trying to be friendly but i'd like to say it is very hard ,especially after a hard time in farming trophies. but i will not attack anyone.

lets make it simple.
i use some method in single-player then i kill laz for 1000 times. then i get 22 trophies. i think the result is quite reasonable.

and lets make some math concepts clearly.
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and please let me quote some posts

Nearly 300 Lucion/Malic fights in Triune a few seasons ago; no trophy. It unfortunately happens and it is demoralizing.
by adamo68
as a matter of fact theuberelite and i did over 300 lazarus runs this season just to see 1 trophy (uber got his on 354 run live on twitch, i died on drop and gave up)
by Syphery

ty you two share your experience and i'd like to take it as real.

let me ask a question . what is the probability of killing laz 100 times without trophy ? if you are not good at math that's fine. guess it. and 200 times ? 300 times ?

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wow. its not low for 100times. In statistical significance. But it is low for 200 even 300.
i will farm more , indeed.
but lets see what i quoted .if some guys think it is normal for somebody to get a 2% chance reward for 300+times, its not. its 10-times-rarer than get a trophy by just ONE RUN.

and plz let me quote some admin's post , i want to reply but the last post is locked.
Its RNG, there are no bugs, farm more.

why RNG means no bugs? i dont think its well-function.
I think there might be a misconception here at play.
2% chance of receiving a trophy doesn't mean that if you don't get it in 98 runs you'll get it in the following two runs.
What it means is that every time you kill Laz you'll have 98% chance of not getting the trophy. That percentage is fixed and it doesn't vary depending on how many time you kill him.
On your millionth Laz kill the dice will be thrown and you'll still have 98% chance of not getting the trophy with that kill.


i know it very clearly , thank you for your further explanation.
i'm not asking after 98 runs without trophies and the following two runs must get 2 trophies. or asking 2 trophies with 100 runs.you misunderstood me.
i know clearly what 2% chance of getting a trophy means. and all i want to do is show you how rare is it .for 100(me) and 300(other guys) times of runs to get nothing. and want you admin to check if it works well. instead of just saying RNG. RNG don't have to mean function well.

Did you read what requimlux said above? He said what i typed out initially and then deleted because of precise reason that people will chose to ignore that part of the reply anyway.

yes i did and i just quoted it. thank you for reminding.
fengyun1993228 inspired me, and I ended up rewriting maths entirely.

Maths 2.0 changelog:
- will now follow the objective law of Mathematic
- triangles now have 4 sides, instead of 3 as they did before
- squares were deleted
- pi was slightly nerfed
- square root: added lightning damage bonus
- if you complain on forums on how you are entitled to a drop according to maths, the drop is guaranteed upon the next kill


it doesn't help at all. if you don't like what i say or you think it is wrong . click the right corner "X" or give your process. its a good thing to help players to correct mistakes.

thank you for reading.

my last edition to this topic.
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Edited by RyougiShiki 1 year.
head-
Skeleton
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MXL (and even the Diablo engine itself) cannot apply pseudo-random drop - I think some modern games uses this formula

but I wanted to ask... lets say I play lottery (the national, or something like that) weekly, and after 300 weeks, i still didnt win it, its the systems fault, or just bad luck that the numbers I picked didn't match with what they pulled out?
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thunderman
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head- wrote:MXL (and even the Diablo engine itself) cannot apply pseudo-random drop - I think some modern games uses this formula

but I wanted to ask... lets say I play lottery (the national, or something like that) weekly, and after 300 weeks, i still didnt win it, its the systems fault, or just bad luck that the numbers I picked didn't match with what they pulled out?


He is talking about some abnormalities on Ladder where players are told my devs it's normal to run Uber boss for 300 times and don't get a trophy which is caused by bad luck. however there is not such thing like bad luck in math.

Chance to win lottery (6 numbers) 0.0000000715

Chance for trophy 2%

Running 100 times with no trophy is against odds.
How much money would you bid on someone running Uber 100 times without getting any trophy? Not to mention 300... odds are insane
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SwineFlu
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You know that mathematicians who was standing at the beginning of probability theory were doing some real experiments. Among such experiments there is one where they were tossing the coin, and they were doing it for 10 thousand times just to prove that probability is actually 0.5 for either side, 10k tries for 0.5 probability. In your case probability is (or at least it should be) equal to 0.02, guess how many times you have to run Laz to prove that something is wrong? You need a large sample to prove it, 300 or even 1000 is not even close to be enough.

The actual probability to get Laz trophy is indeed 0.02 in single player, although it might be different on TSW, I'm not trying to argue with that. In case you're interested d2 engine is using MWC pseudorandom number generator and accordingly to the wiki period for this generator should be 2^63 (since both lower and higher 32 bit seeds are used in calculation).
piezo
Stone Warrior
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As a stats dude I love this ish. Let's be clear, events with a 0.2% probability happen all the god damn time. By definition something with a 0.2% chance does not never happen. In any case I'm skeptical anyone actually ran laz 300 times. That'd be boring af.

TLDR: MARCO FIX MATHS
r41714
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fengyun1993228 wrote:it is about 13% /1.7% /0.2% . if you think im wrong , plz give your math process , don't mock or say other things.[/spoil]


Your math is correct. The probability of running 300 without a trophy is none zero so it could happen, although unlikely, but possible nevertheless.

Do you have suggestion/solution to the issue?

Personally I want trophy drop rate to be at least 10%. 2% is way too low for me to even bother to hunt for trophies
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RequiemLux
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fengyun1993228 wrote:i use a software in single-player and i set it to 100. it means when i kill a mob, it will drop 100 times.
then i kill laz for 10 times. so totally drop 10X100=1000 times. then i get 22 trophies. i think the result is quite reasonable.


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Imperius
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I got my trophy for Quov Tsin after about 80 runs, if you do like 15 runs a day you will not get so bored, i think this is a good way of getting them, every time you enter the game, do something and try the trophy, do someting and try the trophy, repeat and repeat.
This is what i do to get my tropies.
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RyougiShiki
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RequiemLux wrote:
fengyun1993228 wrote:i use a software in single-player and i set it to 100. it means when i kill a mob, it will drop 100 times.
then i kill laz for 10 times. so totally drop 10X100=1000 times. then i get 22 trophies. i think the result is quite reasonable.


Please read the rules: Forum Rules
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i think its not hack or cheat
CE is just a tool used in single-player to test.
if it is still forbidden i will delete the details about CE.
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RyougiShiki
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r41714 wrote:
fengyun1993228 wrote:it is about 13% /1.7% /0.2% . if you think im wrong , plz give your math process , don't mock or say other things.[/spoil]


Your math is correct. The probability of running 300 without a trophy is none zero so it could happen, although unlikely, but possible nevertheless.

Do you have suggestion/solution to the issue?

Personally I want trophy drop rate to be at least 10%. 2% is way too low for me to even bother to hunt for trophies


everything could happen in this world. but its extremely rare.
if other guys' experience is real , at least 4 persons is experiencing this annoying thing. i don't think the player number in this game is big enough to make it.

my suggestion is use BOTTOM-KEEPING
set a counter in every char and every bosses ,if i kill this bosses 100 (or whatever number MNX think it is proper) times without trophy. the next boss must drop.
or just make 100 (or else number) charms in cube = 1trophy
Edited by RyougiShiki 1 year.